The Economic Sciences Research Institute of the University of Costa Rica predicts that the national economy’s GDP will grow by around 4.2% in 2025.
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On January 14, 2025, the Economic Sciences Research Institute (IICE) of the University of Costa Rica (UCR) published its Quarterly Economic Analysis: Third Quarter 2024 and Projections for the First Quarter of 2025 and the Full Year.
The researchers emphasized that the country could sustain economic growth in 2025, similar to the previous year. However, this will depend on various conditions of national and international stability. The Economic Sciences Research Institute of the University of Costa Rica noted that maintaining steady household consumption and effective economic policies would be critical in achieving these projections.
The IICE’s first report of the year projects GDP growth between 3.8% and 4.7% by the end of 2025. For the close of the first quarter of this year, a higher growth rate is expected, reaching 5.1% (with an estimated range of 4.5% to 5.8%). The Economic Sciences Research Institute of the University of Costa Rica attributed this potential growth to robust performance in the special regime (including free trade zones), which is leading this growth with a projected 10.9% increase by the end of the year (range: 8.1% to 13.8%). In comparison, the definitive regime is expected to grow by 3.1% (range: 2.5% to 3.7%).
The institute’s analysis highlights that although domestic demand declined in the third quarter of last year, household consumption has remained strong. On the other hand, the Economic Sciences Research Institute of the University of Costa Rica observed that the year-on-year change in family spending represented 1.28% of GDP in the third quarter of 2024, almost half of the 3.72% recorded in the same period in 2023. Despite the decrease, it remains the main component of domestic demand.
The year-on-year final household consumption expenditure growth fell from 6.04% in the third quarter of 2023 to 2.94% in 2024. Of this change, 1.21 percentage points came from services (less than half the previous year’s 3.9 p.p.), 0.72 p.p. from non-durable goods, 0.55 p.p. from durable goods, and 0.46 p.p. from semi-durable goods.
In terms of economic activity, the main contributors to year-on-year GDP growth in the third quarter were professional, scientific, and technical activities (0.98 p.p.), followed by manufacturing (0.88 p.p.). Most other categories showed small but positive or nearly flat growth, except for electricity, water, and sanitation services (-0.1 p.p.) and construction (-0.43 p.p.).
Employment
Year-on-year increases were recorded in employment levels and hours worked in primary jobs. Employment grew by 8.6% between the third quarters of 2023 and 2024, while hours worked increased by 6.7%.
In the mobile quarter from August to October, employment saw a year-on-year increase of 7.61%, with 10 out of 14 evaluated labor activities contributing to this rise. The sectors that stood out the most were trade and repair (1.99 p.p.), professional and administrative support activities (1.84 p.p.), and transport and storage (1.84 p.p.).
On the other hand, the activities that showed a year-on-year decline were agriculture, livestock, and fishing (-0.85 p.p.), “unspecified” (-0.37 p.p.), manufacturing (-0.34 p.p.), and construction (-0.30 p.p.). Productivity per hour worked dropped by 2.88% between the third quarters of 2023 and 2024.
Prices
According to the Economic Sciences Research Institute of the University of Costa Rica, prices remain below the inflation target. The year-on-year General Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained below zero from September to November, although it exited negative territory in December. While the CPI in September stood at -0.14%, it fell to -0.79% in October, rebounding to -0.09% in November. By December, it had risen to 0.84%.
Additionally, the IICE projects that the March year-on-year CPI change will range between 1.06% and -0.11%.
Interest Rates and Currency
In January 2025, the Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) reduced its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 4.0%, a rate similar to the Basic Passive Rate (BPR) of 4.15%. Daniela Córdoba Solano, coordinator of the analysis, explained:
“The reductions in the MPR have also put downward pressure on passive rates in the economy. In the case of active rates, the decline has been much slower. These rates have remained high for longer. That explains why loans have not grown significantly. However, we have started to see a slightly greater reduction in active rates recently, which has favored an annual increase in the credit balances of the banking system to the non-financial private sector, especially for consumption, trade, and services.”
Furthermore, the Economic Sciences Research Institute of the University of Costa Rica highlighted the 3.5% appreciation of the colon’s value between October 2023 and October 2024, surpassing the 3.3% revaluation recorded in recent months.
Between November 2023 and October 2024, exports grew by 4.9% in the definitive regime and 10.8% in the special regime, representing 66% of total exports. The precision and medical equipment sector led exports, accounting for 67% in October. The electrical and electronics sector grew from just 2% of the total in January of the previous year to 38% by October. Meanwhile, the agricultural industry experienced a significant reduction, dropping from 15% to 6% over the same months.
Lastly, imports under the definitive regime increased by 8.6%, while those under the special regime fell by 9.7%.
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